The dry bulk shipping market returned to a growth trajectory in the third quarter of 2026, with the capesize segment showing the strongest prospects, while other vessel classes advanced at varying speeds.
According to BIMCO, dry bulk trade demand is expected to grow by 2%-3%, broadly in line with an estimated 2.5% increase in effective fleet supply, helping maintain a relatively balanced market.
China remains the key source of uncertainty. Iron ore imports rose 6.3% during the first five months of the year, while steel production declined 4.1% and port inventories remained elevated.
The divergence raises the risk of volatility in the capesize segment, which is heavily dependent on Chinese raw material imports.
Capesize: Strong recovery
The capesize market rebounded sharply, reversing the weaker sentiment seen earlier in the year. Increased mining activity in the Pacific boosted demand for iron ore shipments, while chartering activity accelerated.
Freight rates on the C5 route, linking Western Australia with China, rose from around 10 dollars per tonne to 12.30 dollars per tonne.
A similar trend was observed in the Atlantic basin, supported by cargoes from southern Brazil and West Africa to China. Rates on the C3 route increased from about 27 dollars per tonne to around 30 dollars per tonne, with some fixtures exceeding that level.
Limited vessel availability and heightened competition among charterers further strengthened the market. The BCI 5TC index, which tracks earnings across five major capesize routes, gained more than $5,000 and closed at $37,181 per day.
Panamax and kamsarmax: Grain cargoes provide support
Market conditions were also positive for panamax and kamsarmax vessels.
In the Atlantic, limited vessel availability in Northern Europe and the western Mediterranean supported freight rates. An 82,000-dwt vessel secured earnings of 22,750 dollars per day for a grain shipment, while a 78,000-dwt vessel was fixed at 28,750 dollars per day for a voyage from the U.S. East Coast to India.
The market for voyages from the east coast of South America to the Far East developed at a two-speed pace, with July cargoes commanding higher rates than August shipments, reflecting stronger prompt demand but greater caution for the remainder of the quarter.
In the Pacific, demand from Australia and the North Pacific, combined with tighter vessel supply, pushed rates higher. Period-charter activity remained limited, with fixtures reported around 19,750 dollars per day.
Ultramax and supramax: Mixed performance
The ultramax and supramax sectors presented a more mixed picture.
The Atlantic market remained broadly stable, supported by fresh transatlantic demand and continued interest from the U.S. Gulf. Voyages to Singapore and Japan were discussed in the low-30,000-per-day range for ultramax vessels.
In Europe and the Mediterranean, market trends diverged. The Mediterranean benefited from return cargoes and trade linked to the Red Sea, while Northern Europe lacked the usual support from scrap metal shipments.
In the Pacific, the Far East remained steady thanks to demand for backhaul voyages and North Pacific cargoes.
By contrast, Southeast Asia faced pressure from an accumulation of available tonnage and weaker Indonesian coal export activity.
Overall, the outlook for the third quarter remains positive, although market conditions are expected to remain volatile.
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