Shipping: Outlook positive, but risks remain

According to Veson Nautical’s (Shipping Market Outlook) analysis of the market prospects in the first quarter of 2026, longer distances, geopolitical distortions in trade flows and the -still- controlled fleet supply continue to support demand and revenues, albeit at different speeds and risks per sector.

A key feature of the current situation is the fragmented market landscape.

For example, in some sectors, tight supply and geopolitical distortions are supporting profitability, while in others, the acceleration of new ship deliveries is raising questions about the potential for oversupply and pressure on values.

In terms of individual segments, the tanker market closed 2025 with exceptionally high revenues, especially for crude tankers.

VLCCs recorded average daily rates of over 100,000 dollars in the fourth quarter, levels not seen since before the global financial crisis.

This picture was supported by increased OPEC+ production, strong exports from the Atlantic and distortions caused by sanctions.

However, Veson warned that 2026 will be a turning point. New tanker deliveries are increasing significantly after the low levels of 2024, while the ship recycling market remains extremely limited.

Although greater distances and the reconfiguration of trade flows support employment, a possible return to smooth passage through the Red Sea or a de-escalation of geopolitical tensions constitute key downside risks to the freight market.

In bulk carriers, more “traditional” seasonal characteristics were recorded, with the fourth quarter standing out, thanks to capesizes.

Freight rates were supported by strong iron ore and bauxite flows, with an increasing share coming from the Atlantic region.

Capesize earnings, for example, increased from a low of 20,000 dollars/day earlier in the year, reaching almost 45,000 dollars/day during the seasonal high.

The start of shipments from the Simandou iron ore mining project in Guinea is of particular importance.

With a capacity of up to 120 million tonnes per year, this project introduces much greater distances than traditional exports from Australia, boosting demand in ton-mile terms.

Veson noted that, despite modest fleet growth, from 2026 onwards, increased deliveries are likely to gradually dampen freight dynamics.

Regarding the containership market, Veson Nautical data showed that it remained profitable until the end of 2025, with freight rates declining marginally but remaining significantly higher than the historical average.

Diversions via the Cape of Good Hope continued to support demand in TEUmiles, while companies actively managed supply through slower steaming.

However, the supply side is the main “headache”. New ship deliveries amounted to approximately 2.9 million TEU in 2024 and 1.9 million TEU in the first ten months of 2025, with the orderbook now corresponding to 35% of the existing fleet.

Veson estimated that 2026 and the following years will be characterized by idle capacity and downward pressures on ship values, especially if there is a return to normal transits through Suez.

As reported by Veson Nautical analysts, the LPG (liquefied petroleum gas) market showed strong revenues in 2025, thanks to the rise in exports from the US and favorable conditions for exploiting price differences between markets (arbitrage).

A typical example is the VLGCs (Very Large Gas Carriers) which recorded average freight rates of around 50,000 dollars per day.

However, the acceleration of fleet growth is a key risk factor.

At the same time, medium-sized ships showed greater volatility, while trade flows remained sensitive to developments with tariffs and transit conditions through the Panama Canal.

Veson pointed out that, with the orderbook at high levels and the fleet relatively young, the possibilities for scrapping are limited.

While new export infrastructure in the US and the Middle East is supporting volumes, increased pressure on yields is expected from 2027 onwards.

Overall, according to the report, 2026 is shaping up to be a year of mixed markets.

Longer distances, geopolitical tensions and structural changes in cargo flows are supporting shipping, but increasing supply of vessels in some sectors increases the risk of volatility.