Athens stock market: Key factors shaping January’s close

Last week proved that geopolitical challenges constitute the No. 1 threat to the Athens Stock Exchange. Therefore, it is reasonable that the domestic capital market is already building the first “lines” of defense against the risk.

A risk, which seems to be contained after Donald Trump’s recent decisions and the “truce” around the issue of Greenland and trade tariffs. However, it is not certain that this risk will not return again.

Given that volatility and instability are the new normalcy, the Greek market is already demonstrating its assets in order to attract new capital from abroad.

•The net profitability of listed companies is estimated to have reached new record levels for the 12 months of 2025, exceeding the previous performance of 11.5 billion euros (fiscal year 2024). The first official financial figures will begin to be published in February, while the new business plans of the large listed companies are eagerly awaited, which are expected to incorporate ambitious goals for the coming years.

• For several months, the managements of the companies listed on the Stock Exchange have been engaged in an informal “competition” to distribute ever higher dividends, which has improved the average dividend yield in the region to around 4%. It is no coincidence that last year’s distributions reached a historic high of 6 billion euros. An amount that cannot be ruled out being repeated this year, especially if the banks continue their generous rewards.

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• The Greek economy continues to demonstrate an image of stability, which contrasts with the multitude of uncertainties burdening the rest of Europe. For another year, the rate of change in GDP is expected to exceed +2%, outperforming the Eurozone member states. At the same time, despite the cloudy picture of the polls, the fact that the next parliamentary elections are scheduled for the spring of 2027 indicates that the market has a “clear field” of at least 6 to 12 months.

At the same time, the average turnover of transactions is already set at 370 million euros, levels which, on the one hand, are significantly higher than last year, and on the other hand, have not been recorded since 2007-2008.

Threats

Of course, there is also the counterargument, which we must always take into account. A negative shock abroad is considered extremely difficult to leave Athens unaffected, since the participation of foreign investors in daily transactions is approaching 70%. “Given that international funds are the drivers of the Greek market, the reduced investment appetite for equity securities is impossible to leave the ATHEX unscathed, which is called upon to resist the black swans of the international environment,” pointed out Dimitris Tzanas, management consultant at Kyklos AXEPEY.

At the same time, the rise so far does not seem to have extended to the middle or low layers of capitalization, remaining almost exclusively focused on “heavy papers”. “The rise has not yet spread to mid- and small-cap stocks, despite new 16-year highs being reached, which is a sign of hesitation and caution on the part of the active investment base,” Beta Securities explained in its standard report.

We should also not rule out the possibility that the market has already discounted most of the positive news, essentially leaving Athens without new catalysts that could support a new upward movement.

Finally, the current bull market may be looking for a way out to assimilate the gains or even correct, given that the General Index, according to technical analysis, is consistently at overbought levels.