The so-called “shadow fleet” of global shipping is not a temporary phenomenon that will disappear with a possible peace in Ukraine.
On the contrary, according to analysts and market data, it is a structural change in the international shipping system, which will continue to exist regardless of developments in 2026.
The rapid expansion of the “shadow fleet” began as a direct consequence of sanctions against Russia after the invasion of Ukraine.
Negotiations to end the war bring back the question of what will become of the hundreds of low-end tankers that currently transport “sanctioned” cargoes.
The prevailing view in the market is that, even in a scenario of lifting sanctions against Moscow, only a portion of these ships will be sent to the scrapyards.
A significant percentage will seek new employment in other markets that operate outside the Western compliance framework.
Developments
This gap is already being filled mainly by Iran and, until recently, Venezuela, where, following the latest developments and the arrest of President Nicolas Maduro by the US, new data is expected to emerge regarding the oil industry and therefore the tanker market in the region.
However, according to a survey by Lloyd’s List, in September and October, 21 ships with a total capacity of 2.1 million dwt joined the “shadow” trade and 92% of the capacity was directed to Iran and Venezuela.
The pressure on available “net” capacity and the large volume of oil constantly “in the water” force countries under sanctions to constantly secure new tonnage. As Vortexa analysts pointed out, even if Russia were to theoretically exit the sanctions regime – a scenario that many doubt – the regime for Iran and Venezuela remains strict, ensuring the continuation of the “shadow fleet”.
Beyond the geopolitical aspect, the issue is now taking on a systemic dimension. The thousands of sanctions in recent years have created a “domino” of withdrawals from the conventional market, while at the same time giving rise to sophisticated deceptive practices:
AIS tampering or deactivation, ship identity theft, successive flag changes and registrations in non-existent or loose registries.
This “manual” of illegality is now available to any actor seeking to circumvent the international shipping system.
And the dangers are not limited to oil. In the Black Sea, bulk carriers transporting cargo from occupied Ukrainian territories use forged documents and systematically erase their markings.
At the same time, tankers involved in smuggling fuel from Libya follow similar practices.
Numbers
Of these, 520 are crude and product tankers. Their share corresponds to 12.5% of global tanker tonnage: practically, one in eight tankers operates outside the Western insurance and certification framework.
The average age of these ships is 19.5 years – ships that would normally end up in the scrapyards of Alang or Chittagong, but are now changing hands at high prices through shell companies.
The “shadow fleet”, therefore, is not just a grey area. It is a mechanism that allows, among other things, Russia to export about 3.5 million barrels per day, bypassing the G7 price ceiling.
As analysts pointed out, even if the geopolitical landscape changes, the infrastructure, networks and incentives will remain. And this makes managing its risks one of the biggest challenges for global shipping in the next decade.
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