With credit expansion already exceeding annual targets for 2025 and approaching 13-14 billion euros annually, its growth is estimated around 8% in 2026, according to analysts, as well as the forecasts of international rating agencies.
Analysts who spoke to “N” reported that net disbursements for 2026 are expected to range between 8-10 billion euros, taking into account both conservative and optimistic estimates.
Piraeus Bank
Piraeus’ credit expansion accelerated not only in all areas of business loans in the third quarter, but also in the increase in loans to households, with the target for the 2025 fiscal year rising to 3.5 billion euros, while management expects an equally good year for 2026.
According to Christos Megalou (CEO of Piraeus), business loans were the driving force behind the growth of the loan portfolio in the third quarter, housing loans had positive credit expansion for the first time by 45 million euros, while consumer loans followed with a net increase. In the fourth quarter, housing loans, as Megalou noted, have already recorded a net credit expansion of 80 million euros since the beginning of October and are expected to reach 700 million. Retail banking is expected to continue its positive course in 2026, due to the increasing pressure for disbursements from the RRF.
Eurobank
Eurobank expects another positive performance in 2026, according to Fokion Karavias (CEO of Eurobank). At the group level, Eurobank was crowned champion in credit expansion in the 9-month period, after reaching 3.3 billion euros, while at the national level it stood at 2.1 billion euros, which led it to revise its annual target for credit expansion to 4 billion euros.
The growth of loans for Greece comes mainly from business loans and sectors such as infrastructure projects, logistics, pharmaceuticals, and tourism. Regarding retail banking, after two consecutive quarters of net growth in the Greek mortgage market, management is also optimistic for 2026.
National Bank
The management of National Bank of Greece also expects strong loan growth and strong credit expansion in 2026, while the end of the year is estimated to be equally dynamic.
According to NBG management, credit expansion is expected to significantly accelerate in the fourth quarter, allowing NBG to exceed the annual target for expansion of over 2.5 billion euros, with the renewed target approaching 3 billion.
Regarding the forecasts for 2026, investments will continue, there will be an increase in loans, similarly strong in the corporate sector, while there will be additional support from the retail sector.
Alpha Bank
Alpha Bank expects a single-digit growth rate of the loan portfolio approaching 5%-6% in 2026. The credit expansion reached the target of 2.2 billion euros in the nine-month period, however, the management did not revise its targets for the last quarter of 2025.
As the bank’s management stated during the November briefing to analysts, net credit expansion is developing better than expected, with businesses receiving the lion’s share of credit expansion.
It also expects this momentum to continue, fueling high single-digit growth for businesses, with retail banking generating positive growth that will intensify in the coming years.
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