Inflation edges toward 4% – Diesel and heating oil surge by over 20%

Inflation rose to 3.9% in March, driven primarily by increases in heating and transport fuel prices amid developments in the Middle East, while further price hikes were recorded in meat products.

At the same time, olive oil prices have continued to decline for several months. According to data from the Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT), inflation accelerated to 3.9% in March 2026, up from 2.7% in February.

Among the categories recording the highest annual increases were beef (+20.3%), followed by lamb and goat meat (+14.1%), margarine and vegetable fats (+11.6%), coffee (+11.3%), and chocolate and chocolate products (+9%). In contrast, olive oil posted the steepest decline, falling by 22.5%.

In the energy sector, the crisis in the Middle East drove heating oil prices up by 24.6% year-on-year in March 2025, while diesel increased by 22.8%. Gasoline prices rose at a more moderate pace of 9%, while other fuels surged by 27.4%. Electricity prices recorded a 2.4% annual increase, whereas natural gas prices declined by 25.2%.

Air transport fares also rose by 22%.

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The 3.9% increase in the overall Consumer Price Index (CPI) in March 2026, compared with March 2025, was primarily driven by changes across the following categories of goods and services:

• Food and non-alcoholic beverages (+4.5%), mainly due to higher prices for bread and bakery products, beef, lamb and goat meat, poultry, processed meat products, fish and seafood, dairy and eggs, margarine and vegetable fats, fruit, vegetables, chocolate products, confectionery, and coffee. This increase was partly offset by lower prices for pasta, olive oil, other edible oils, and condiments.
• Alcoholic beverages and tobacco (+0.9%), driven mainly by higher cigarette prices.
• Clothing and footwear (+2.1%), reflecting increased prices in apparel and footwear.
• Housing (+5.7%), primarily due to rising rents, housing maintenance and repair costs, various housing-related services, electricity, and heating oil. This was partly offset by lower natural gas prices.
• Durable goods, household items and services (+0.2%), mainly due to higher prices in household services, partially offset by declines in non-durable household goods.
• Health (+1.4%), driven by increases in medical products, outpatient services, and hospital care, partially offset by lower pharmaceutical prices.
• Transport (+8.1%), reflecting higher prices for new cars, spare parts and personal transport equipment, diesel, gasoline, other fuels, maintenance and repair of transport equipment, related services, and air passenger transport fares. This increase was partly offset by lower prices for used cars.
• Recreation, sports and culture (+0.7%), due to higher prices for gardening products, pets, and package holidays, partially offset by declines in recreational services.
• Education (+2.8%), driven by increases in tuition fees for pre-primary, primary, and secondary education.
• Hotels, cafés and restaurants (+6.1%), mainly due to higher prices in restaurants, confectioneries, fast food outlets, and cafeterias, partially offset by lower accommodation prices.
• Insurance and financial services (+1.5%), primarily due to higher health insurance premiums, partially offset by lower vehicle insurance premiums.

Meanwhile, price decreases were recorded in:

• Information and communication (-2.3%), driven by lower prices for communication equipment, mobile telephony services, and bundled telecom packages.
• Personal care, social protection and other goods and services (-0.4%), mainly due to lower prices for personal hygiene and care products, partially offset by increases in hairdressing and personal care services, as well as other related services.