Greece’s four systemic banks are expected to report combined net profits of around 2.3 billion euros for the first half of 2026, according to analysts, reinforcing expectations that the sector will match or even surpass last year’s record annual earnings of 4.7 billion euros.
The earnings season will begin on July 29, when Piraeus Bank reports results, followed by National Bank of Greece and Eurobank on July 30, while Alpha Bank is scheduled to announce its figures on July 31. Investors will also focus on management conference calls for updated guidance and strategic priorities for the second half of the year.
The renewed energy crisis triggered by the U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran has already prompted the European Central Bank (ECB) to raise interest rates once. While the ECB is widely expected to leave its deposit rate unchanged at 2.25% at Thursday’s meeting, markets are pricing in an increase to 2.5% by autumn and a further rise to 2.75% by next spring.
The higher-rate environment is expected to continue supporting banks’ profitability. Analysts estimate Greek banks’ net interest margin (NIM)—net interest income as a percentage of average interest-earning assets—at around 2.7%, broadly in line with Spanish lenders and well above the 1.5%-2.0% range reported by major euro zone banks.
Meanwhile, the spread between lending and deposit rates exceeds four percentage points, compared with roughly 1.5-2 percentage points across the euro zone. According to market estimates, every 25-basis-point increase in interest rates lifts the four banks’ combined net interest income by 135 million to 200 million euros and increases net profit by 105 million to 155 million euros.
The banks generated more than 2.1 billion euros in net interest income during the first quarter. Analysts expect that figure to rise to around 2.2 billion euros in the second quarter, with further gains anticipated in the months ahead.
Loan growth remains a key earnings driver
Beyond higher interest rates, continued expansion of loan portfolios is expected to provide an additional boost to earnings.
The European Commission last week unveiled proposals aimed at strengthening the competitiveness of the banking sector, including measures to release supervisory capital under Pillar 2 requirements. The changes are expected to give banks greater capacity to support credit growth, particularly for businesses and residential mortgages.
The proposals build on strong lending momentum. New loan disbursements reached 16 billion euros in 2025, while net new lending totaled 9.18 billion euros. Overall credit expansion is estimated at 8% in 2025, compared with an average of 3% across the euro zone. Corporate lending grew by approximately 12% last year.
The trend continued in the first quarter of 2026, with net new lending to households increasing by 2.78 billion euros, while loans to businesses rose by 2.8 billion euros, following an increase of 9.7 billion euros in 2025.
Although the annual growth rate of lending to non-financial corporations eased to 9.8% in May, from 17.4% a year earlier, it remains above the euro zone average. Mortgage lending, after nearly 15 years of contraction, returned to positive growth in late 2025 and continued to recover during the first quarter of 2026, supported largely by the government’s housing programme.
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