The need for Military Autonomy and Defense, alongside the Technological Transition—dominated by Artificial Intelligence—as well as the Green Transition, which remains embedded in the broader geopolitical landscape, is driving profound shifts in both the production and demand of critical raw materials. As noted by N. Arvanitidis, PhD Economic Geologist and member of the SCRREEN CRM Expert Network, “we are entering a new era of competition for mineral raw materials.”
The competing demand between the Energy Transition (green growth) and Technological–Defense Autonomy (digital and military sectors) constitutes the defining geopolitical and economic challenge of the decade. In Greece, the “National Program for the Exploration of Critical Raw Materials (CRMs)” for the period 2025–2028 is currently underway.
Three key fronts
These demand streams are not complementary but rather competing, placing intense pressure on already fragile supply chains for critical raw materials. It is worth noting that, of the 12 critical raw materials identified as essential for NATO, seven are controlled by China. At the same time, the approximately two billion mobile phones sold annually require around 2,000 tonnes of rare earth metals.
The competition for critical raw materials is now unfolding across three main fronts: the green transition, technology, and defense. The green transition was the first to drive a surge in demand for elements such as neodymium, praseodymium, dysprosium, and terbium. Rapid technological demand—primarily driven by AI systems—along with the growing push for military autonomy, exemplified by systems such as Tomahawk missiles and F-35 fighter jets, is now generating an additional and equally intense layer of demand.
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