By T. Tsiros
The International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) long-awaited proposals and observations for the Greek program and the country’s crisis-battered economy will officially be unveiled on Monday with a report presented to the Fund’s executive directors, although press leaks over the past month have more-or-less revealed the direction of projections and forecasts.
The Fund’s positions over the Greek program have alternately clashed with the leftist Greek government, on the one hand, and with European creditors, on the other, whereas the Fund’s positions converge with Athens on some fronts, but with European creditors on others.
The IMF’s positions on debt relief and what it calls unrealistic primary budget surplus targets for Greece after 2018 echo the line out of Athens. Nonetheless, the now unpopular leftist-rightist coalition government in Greece is loath to agree to IMF demands for a lower annual tax-free threshold and further social security cuts on certain categories of pensioners, i.e. people that retired after working for state-run enterprises and utilities.
In terms of the Fund’s predictions for the Greek economy, it foresees GDP growth over 2016 to end up by a marginal 0.4 percent, rising to 2.7 percent in 2017. The same pace, more-or-less is forecast for 2018, at 2.6 percent; 2.4 percent in 2019 and 2 percent in 2020.
Private consumption was up by 0.8 percent of GDP in 2016, the IMF calculates, while predicting an increase of 1.5 percent in 2017; 1.4 percent in 2018; 1.2 percent in 2019 and 1 percent in 2020.
Public sector consumption was put at up by 0.7 percent in 2016; 0.5 percent for 2017; 0.5 percent up for 2018; 2 percent in 2019 and 1.7 percent in 2020.
In terms of exports, the Fund said the sector was up by only 1 percent in 2016, compared with an increase in imports by 1.2 percent. For 207 the increase in exports, as a percentage of GDP, will reach 6.5 percent, compared to an increase of 4.6 percent for imports.
