MSCI’s decision to fast-track the process and proceed with a public consultation on a possible stock market upgrade to ‘developed status’ enhances the current momentum.
The public consultation will last until March 16, with the final decision to be announced by March 31 and implemented from August 2026.
If there is a positive outcome (the most possible scenario), this means that all three major rating agencies will have “pressed the button” for Athens’ return to the “club” of Developed Markets. And this is because FTSE Russell has already taken a corresponding decision (it will come into effect next September), while Stoxx is expected to follow suit.
In the wake of the MSC initiative, the General Index climbed above 2,300 points for the first time since January 2010 and extended the “January Effect” to +9.1%.
The four systemic banks, which are considered the main beneficiaries in the event of an upgrade, continue to be the major protagonists of the bull market, with a premium of +20.8% since the beginning of 2026. This year’s sector capital gains reach the amount of 9.48 billion euros, given that the capitalization of the seven banking stocks now exceeds 58.25 billion euros.
On the other hand, questions are raised for the remaining blue chips.
If MSCI does indeed upgrade Greece to Development Markets, then on the one hand MSCI Greece will have a lower weighting (0.06% from 0.57%), having to compete with markets such as Paris and London, on the other hand Standard Greece will see the number of participating stocks reduced to five (from eight today in Emerging Markets).
According to the simulation exercise, which was carried out with prices from last October, in these circumstances Standard Greece would have the four systemic banks and OPAP. On the contrary, PPC, OTE and Jumbo would be excluded, which together with AIA, Titan Cenement, Cenergy, Motor Oil, Helleniq Energy, GEK TERNA, Intralot, Viohalco, Aktor, Lamda, Aegean and Sarantis would make up the Small Cap of Greece.
At the same time, Optima, OLP, EYDAP, IPTO and Autohellas, which are currently included in the index, would be removed from the Small Cap.
However, there have been significant fluctuations in the above stocks since October, as well as changes in the free float, which also plays a role in MSCI’s criteria.
In conclusion, the return of ATHEX to the Developed Markets is expected to restore the profile, credibility and prestige of the Athens stock exchange (in parallel with the Euronext deal), attracting quality funds with a long-term profile. However, at the same time, it is expected to bring about some negative developments, such as the reduction of the weighting factor of MSCI Greece and the exit of three stocks from Standard Greece.
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