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Greek statistical service: Recession in Q4 2016 greater than initial forecasts

Greek GDP posted a significant deterioration over the fourth trimester of 2016, according to the Greek statistical service (EL.STAT) on Monday, a development that couldn’t come at a worse time, given resumed talks in Athens this week between the embattled leftist government and institutional creditors.

Specifically, the Greek economy was shown as shrinking by 1.1 percent, in comparison to the same quarter of 2015. A 1.2-percent-GDP loss was derived when compared to the preceding quarter of 2016 (Q3).

EL.STAT’s preliminary forecasts had pointed to 0.3-percent GDP growth during Q4 2016.

The now independent statistical service, a provision of recent memorandum bailouts, said  differences in forecasts and results comes from the inclusion of data that was not available during the initial prediction.

The statistical authority said the data is either monthly, such as the balance of payments figure for December 2016, or quarterly, such as turnover for the services sectors.

In a later reaction, albeit via the “unofficial route”, government sources maintained that the disappointing figures are “not final”, with the final numbers expected in April.

The statement held out the hope that next month’s figures will overturn the revised negative performance.