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Hellenic Fiscal Council: Several serious risks imperil economic forecasts

A report by the Hellenic Fiscal Council (HFisc), an independent administrative authority established in 2014 under the second memorandum, on Thursday referred to significant risks that jeopardize the Greek economy’s macro-economic forecasts.

Specifically, the HFisc’s spring report warns the country’s political leadership that the following risks should be taken into serious account, including:

– Greece’s adaptation to the post-memorandum period

– continued high unemployment and an exacerbation of the demographic problem

– unforeseen repercussions from critical geopolitical developments in Iran, the eastern Mediterranean, Syria and Turkey

– Political instability in Italy, as a possible source of uncertainty   

– A negative impact on private consumption from continued restrictive tax measures, as well as a negative impact on exports and its effect on GDP.

The council, nevertheless, said this year’s fiscal target of a 3.5 percent primary budget surplus (as a percentage of GDP) is attainable, referring to an increase in collection of indirect taxes, social security contributions and the public investment program.