As the benefits of the UniCredit – Alpha Bank deal are numerous and the Greek bank has already registered significant market profits, scenarios for a possible full takeover are “heating up”. Although the conditions seem favorable, banking sources report that there is no reason for such a discussion for the time being.
For some weeks now, after increasing its stake in Alpha Bank, discussions have been open about the possibility of a full takeover of Alpha Bank by UniCredit, due to the favorable climate.
The increase in UniCredit’s stake to 26% has boosted Alpha Bank’s share price, recording the largest increase in price in Europe. This agreement creates the necessary conditions for UniCredit to increase its stake to 33%-34% in the future and to be able to submit, if it wishes, a public offer for a full acquisition of Alpha Bank.
Italian banker Andrea Orcel’s intentions for Commerzbank seem to be similar. The difference, however, is that in Germany the Italian giant is not so welcome, unlike Greece and the Greek government. “We have acquired a 20% stake in Alpha Bank and we are welcome by everyone: the bank, the central bank, the government, public opinion,” he recently told the Swiss magazine Bilanz.
Favorable conditions
According to Reuters, conditions in Greece are more favorable, while given that Greece has three major banks, it would have no reason to fear excessive foreign control, like Germany.
The international agency reported that UniCredit’s stake and its relationship with Alpha Bank “close” the way for a counter-offer from a competing lender, thus creating a highly favorable environment for Orcel. However, banking sources said that there is neither reason nor occasion for such a discussion for the time being. In fact, the surplus value that Alpha Bank’s independence creates for UniCredit in this deal seems to be stronger than its potential integration into the Italian group.
For the time being, according to information from the Greek side, UniCredit sees more prospects in Alpha Bank as a separate entity, especially in the area of acquisitions.
244-million-euro profits
According to the announcement of the Italian bank, the participation in Alpha will yield net profits of approximately 244 million euros in 2026 – an amount that is estimated to increase significantly in the future – a value that UniCredit also intends to return to its shareholders.
At the same time, UniCredit’s 26% participation, according to the same announcement, will have an impact of approximately 65 basis points on UniCredit’s CET1 ratio, with a return on investment of approximately 20% at this stage, which is expected to improve, thanks to the initiatives resulting from the cooperation of the two credit institutions.
