The next decade is predicted to be a “golden” one for the shipbuilding industry, with global orders for new ships, according to estimates by Goldman Sachs Global Investment, reaching 441 million CGT by 2032, worth approximately 1.2 trillion dollars.
The research arm of the US investment bank says this momentum will be fueled mainly by the need to replace an aging fleet, tightening decarbonization regulations and the continued rise in international maritime trade.
In a note to clients dated September 2, Goldman forecasts new ship orders of 441 million CGT in the period 2025-2032, worth about 1.2 trillion dollars.
Prices are expected to remain high until 2028, even with a possible decline of around 12% from the historical highs of 2024.
The analysis attributes 48% of demand to fleet renewal, 26% to compliance with decarbonization regulations, and 26% to trade growth.
Fleet aging, especially after 2029, when many 20-year-old ships will face regulatory and operational pressures, is expected to accelerate retirements.
By 2035, the operating costs of conventionally fueled ships could exceed those of LNG or methanol, driving alternative fuels to 50% of the fleet.
In the production sector, Goldman forecasts an increase in deliveries from 41 million CGT in 2024 to 52 million in 2027 (+27%), with global shipbuilding capacity expanding by 2% in 2025-2027.
China is expected to lead the expansion through new shipyards and restarts, while Korea and Japan will maintain a more conservative stance.
