A batch of economic figures are expected over the next period that will determine whether there is fiscal room for any new interventions in 2023 and 2024.
The submission of the 2024 budget in Brussels, the deficit and debt figures, the approval of the third tranche from the Recovery Fund and the course of the GDP are only some of the milestones in October.
The draft budget will be submitted to the European Commission by Tuesday at the latest, in order to be approved as part of the European Semester process. This is an obligation for all EU member states. The relevant conclusions are expected to be made public in November.
In the next few days, Greece will have to send to Brussels the final text of the National Recovery Plan following its revision due to the disastrous repercussions of storm Daniel in Thessaly and the fires in Evros. Projects totaling 686 million euros have been included in the plan to restore the damages. The final conclusions from the European Commission’s side will follow in November so that the EU Finance Ministers approve it at the meeting on December 8.
It is noted that the revised “Greece 2.0” has also included the request of Athens for the payment of additional loan resources of 5 billion euros in the context of REPowerEU, in combination with subsidies of approximately 700 million euros.
It is recalled that the European Commission’s decision on the disbursement of the third tranche from the Recovery Fund, amounting to 1.78 billion euros, is still pending, with the Greek side having submitted the relevant request since mid-May.
The Hellenic Statistical Authority (ELSTAT) is expected to publish the annual national accounts on Wednesday, October 18, which will either confirm or not the growth forecasts for 2022 as well as any revisions of the GDP with a direct impact on the debt and the deficit as a percentage of GDP. A few days later, on October 23, Eurostat will announce the figures for the deficit and the debt of 2022.
In the meantime, on October 20, Standard & Poor’s will proceed with the most critical, perhaps, evaluation for the Greek economy.
In the next period of time, special emphasis will be placed on the execution of this year’s budget and the course of food prices as well as developments in the energy sector.