The list of uncertainties that could potentially affect the 2024 budget is growing with the flare-up in the Middle East and increases in judicial pensions adding tens of millions of euros to spending.
It seems that the “unexpected” has now become “normality”. In an already difficult “recipe” – growth of 3% is also foreseen, a more than double primary surplus in relation to 2023, and an increase in tourism revenues – changes are now emerging that can have effects on a fiscal as well as a macroeconomic level.
At the opening of the energy markets, concern was strongly expressed amid the conflict in the Gaza Strip. Oil recorded a big rise to 88 dollars a barrel, while a strong increase in the price of natural gas, as with a daily percentage change of 12%, it exceeded again 42.5 euros per megawatt hour following the directive given by the government of Israel to Chevron to stop gas production on an offshore platform in the area. In combination with the supply interruption of the pipeline connecting Finland and Estonia due to the detection of a leak, the right “mix” was created that led to the big rise.
A potential impact on macroeconomic and fiscal level will require that oil prices remain at high levels for a long period of time. Meanwhile, prices are above the level set as a threshold by the draft state budget. This is 82 dollars per barrel for Brent oil (yesterday the price was 88 dollars) and 40 euros per megawatt hour for natural gas (yesterday the price exceeded 42.5 euros).
