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Voters switching parties: Gains and Losses

A series of opinion polls released over the last days show that New Democracy maintains a large lead over SYRIZA

The political parties are sending the message that there is no room for complacency and focusing their efforts on convincing citizens to vote … before going to the beach!

A series of opinion polls released over the last days show that New Democracy maintains a large lead over SYRIZA, while seven parties may enter the next Parliament. In particular, the Niki party as well as the Plefsi Eleftherias party seem, based on the last polls, to exceed the threshold of 3% and elect MPs.

New Democracy seems to have the highest percentages of consistent voters and minimal leakages, while the percentages of consistent voters of both SYRIZA and PASOK-KINAL are close to 85%.

According to the GPO, the percentage of New Democracy’s percentages of consistent voters is 94.1%, while a portion of its voters moved to PASOK-KINAL (1.6%). At the same time, it has attracted voters mainly from the right, specifically from the Hellenic Solution (22.6%) and the Niki party (8.3%). Significantly smaller are the voters attracted from PASOK (1.8%) and SYRIZA (1.5%).

In SYRIZA, the percentages of consistent voters is 87.1% while some of its voters moved to Plefsi Eleftherias (4.5%) and New Democracy and PASOK (from 1.5% respectively) while it attracted voters mainly from Hellenic Solution (14.3%) and PASOK (5.3%), and a small portion from New Democracy (0.3%).

In PASOK,  the percentage of consistent voters is 84.5% while some of its voters moved to SYRIZA (5.3%) and less to New Democracy and Plefsi Eleftherias (from 1.8% respectively). It attracted voters mainly from KKE (4%) and less from New Democracy (1.6%) and SYRIZA (1.5%).

In a poll by Metron Analysis, which was conducted immediately after the elections, New Democracy reached an extremely high percentage of consistent voters of 94.8%. It has small leaks of the order of 1.6% to PASOK and even smaller (0.9%) to SYRIZA.

At the same time, the percentage of SYRIZA’s percentages of consistent voters is 84.6%, with the main leaks – according to the specific poll held at the end of May – was to PASOK (3.2%), Plefsi Eleftherias (2.7%) and MeRA 25 (1.7%). Finally, as far as PASOK KINAL is concerned – based on the Metron Analysis survey – the percentage of consistent voters is estimated at 86.3%.