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Govt, BoG continue to wager on near 3% GDP growth forecast for 2017

Greek ministers and the BoG governor this week underlined that forecasts for Greek GDP growth in 2017 will approach the very robust — by Greek standards — figure of 3 percent, speaking at an EU-Arab Summit that took place in the Greek capital.

Speaking on Thursday, Economy Minister Giorgos  Stathakis said an improvement of the macro-economic climate depends on fiscal and financial stability, a primary target of the current Greek bailout program, which extends to 2018.

Beyond the mainstays of tourism and shipping, Stathakis said sustainable growth should rely on exports from sectors where Greece enjoys, according to the government, a comparative advantage, such as pharmaceuticals, logistics, agricultural products and energy transport.

On his part, influential Bank of Greece Gov. Yannis Stournaras noted that economic adjustment and structural improvements over the past six years have rendered the crisis-battered country more business-friendly and have opened up investment opportunities.

Addressing the summit on Thursday, called “Partners for Growth and Development: Prospects of the Greek economy after six years of adjustment”, Stournaras said progress in rectifying past mistakes was impressive. He again reiterated the BoG’s forecast of 2.5 and 3.0 percent growth in 2017 and 2018, respectively.    

Speaking earlier in the day, Greek Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras appeared optimistic that creditors will agree to debt relief measures for the country by the end of the year, while he also said talks should begin on the post-2018 situation, when the current bailout ends.

Tsipras’ leftist government has repeatedly said that primary budget surplus targets should be reduced after 2018, a year when the target is a very ambitious 3.5 percent of GDP – a figure many, including the IMF, believe is unattainable and unrealistic.

He also referred to a standing request for Greece’s inclusion in the ECB’s QE program, more than a year after failed negotiations in the first half of 2015 kept the country out of the extra liquidity vehicle.  

Finally, main opposition New Democracy president Kyriakos Mitsotakis told participants that Greece retains economic potential and offers still unexploited investment opportunities.  

“What is missing is a government determined to carry out reforms, one that speaks the same language as investors… The present government is neither willing nor able to do this,” he charged.