By Panos Mitrou
Mr. Panos Mitrou is Technology & Innovation Manager, South Europe Marine & Offshore, Business Development at Hellenic Lloyd;s SA.
According to Albert Einstein ‘’the only reason behind the existence of time, is to prevent things from happening simultaneously’’; and yet shipping seems to be ready to ignore this rule in the next decade. We have to look into historical evidence to find a period so intense like the one we are about to experience really soon. Tremendous legislation endeavours and regulatory mandates as well as forces of change and technological developments are deemed to radically transform the landscape, initiating a route to a fundamentally different shipping by the first half of this century. Will the Greek vessel retain its position as the ‘dominant species’? The answer may seem uncertain, but we could find value in taking a closer look into things.
The dawn of the new decade starts with perhaps the most important environmental regulatory shift, after the MARPOL Convention implementation. The enforcement of sulphur limits in fossil fuels in shipping at a global level, practically takes marine fuels, as we know them, out of the picture. This will make the sector refer to the same portion of refinery products as the shore sectors; whereas desulphurisation units seem too expensive for a process that attributes a significant environmental footprint to the equation. Cost could be translated into hundreds of million dollars annually for waterborne trades. Simultaneously, the cost of compliance with the international Convention for ballast water management is not negligible to say the least. Until 2022 an average of 50,000 ships will need to have a system of ballast water treatment installed, while at the same time a significant proportion of these are expected to end up in the scrap yards. On a current projection, approximately 30% of the global fleet of bulk carriers and 40% of containerships and tankers will have passed their critical milestone of 15 years of service at sea until 2022. From another angle, a new alternative fuel has reached a level of maturity, capable enough to gather the attention of the shipping community, presenting an improved environmental profile and optimistic supply fundamentals; factors that give birth to strong beliefs that Natural Gas will indeed be at the forefront of discussions in the years to come, more than anything else on the agenda of stakeholders and key players.
Under this context, fleet renewal seems obvious or even imperative; but in what direction? This is the million dollar question. On top of stricter financial regulations, two strong drivers of change, decarbonisation and digitalisation will fundamentally transform the shipping industry, bringing extra uncertainty into the mix.
In the last IMO Marine Environment Protection Committee in April, the international maritime society has agreed on the Initial Greenhouse Gas emission reduction strategy. Two targets were outlined, a 40% efficiency improvement for ships by 2030, and above all, the shipping’s GHG emissions reduction by at least 50% by 2050, in absolute terms. Speaking in absolute terms though, we should bear in mind that a normal seaborne trade growth rate ranges between 2% and 4% per year. With a 2050 projection and a forecast of the vessels in operation, we could come to the conclusion that a ‘2050 vessel’ will be allowed to emit 10-15% of GHG compared to a ‘2008 vessel’ , this target therefore translates to 85-90% reduction of GHG per transport work. As ambitious as this goal may look, many stakeholders have expressed their views on the need of even more aggressive targets. In any case, one thing is for sure, vessels to be built by end of this decade will compete, in their lifecycle, with (almost) zero-emission vessels, and nobody can predict what the impact will be to their survival.
How we will start decarbonising? Energy efficiency equipment; speed and/or speed limit reduction; lower installed power; or the use of alternative fuels with zero-emission profile or neutral GHG footprint, such as biofuels, hydrogen, electricity and renewable sources of energy or the less prominent ammonia, are some of the prospects under discussion.
In parallel to the above and with regards to the decarbonisation the fourth industrial revolution is a reality; Data management, blockchains, Internet of Things, Artificial Intelligence, Vessel Traffic Systems; are all examples advocating a new era in maritime transport where time consuming processes will be accelerated to an unimaginable extent and for the first time the floating means of transport will be free of the root cause of most accidents, the human factor. The latter, combined with maritime traffic monitoring systems will render navigation under optimum conditions a reality and Just In Time port operations will constitute the rule rather than the exception.
Evidently, all of the above will not materialise from one day to another, while many other technologies that will also play their role should not be left aside; new materials, port infrastructure, smart ports, nanotechnology products, 3d printing, fuelcells, however it is certain that the next decade will pinpoint the direction where things will go and the dominant trend is evident, a fully automated or even autonomous zero emission vessel, as part of a global, monitoring and management system optimising flows of maritime trade.
In this context, the risk of putting pressure on the independent shipowner and consequently the Greek maritime achievement is realistic. Major changes will require investments of great proportion. Medium and small size companies will increasingly find difficulties in meeting requirements. In this landscape It is vital to join forces and work on a context of transition based on ratio, at a pace non-toxic to the industry. In parallel, it is of utmost importance to closely monitor developments and remain open to innovation. The deep sea shipping activity offers some advantage, as most probably change will hit the short sea shipping sector first, providing some time for a smoother adaptation to the deep sea going vessel.
Our heading though must be clear, we should seek uninterrupted growth for maritime transportation as part of a new global sustainable, cyclical economy with the Greek ship in a leading position.
