Greek lender Eurobank foresees Greek GDP growth for 2017 of between 1.5 and 2 percent, while nevertheless warning that the country’s growth prospects are overshadowed by an ” unusually high degree” of uncertainty.
A significant factor of uncertainty, according to Eurobank’s top analysts, include the year-long delay in concluding the second review of the Greek program (third bailout). Concluding the review in the coming period is cited as imperative, in order to avoid another deterioration of domestic economic activity, especially with very high loan repayment obligations coming in July 2017.
In its publication, entitled Greece Macro Monitor, Eurobank’s analysts said forecasts for 2017 GDP growth are “strictly preliminary”, with a possibility of revisions when a time-frame emerges for conclusively closing of the second review.
The primary scenario included in the report, which takes into account only previously announced fiscal measures, the GDP growth rate for 2017 will revolve at 1.7 percent.
The modest growth rate is based on a recovery of private consumption due to a gradual improvement in salaries and business profits, as well as a further reduction in joblessness. The increases are tempered by the effect of possible new fiscal measures — in this case calculated at 2.6 billion euros — on taxpayers’ disposable income.
Investment is also expected to increase, as are imports.
